At the beginning of the 1970s, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology used a global development model to study how five key factors – population, agricultural production, natural resources, industrial production, and pollution – shape and constrain human existence. Past global developments were analysed and changes up to 2100 were forecast.
In the course of modelling, it was inferred that throughout the history of humankind, the usage of the above-mentioned resources has grown exponentially. On a planet Earth of limited size, the number of people, the area of cultivated land, and the amount of minerals to be mined cannot grow indefinitely. Known stocks of many major mineral resources will continue at the current rate of consumption growth for a few decades to a hundred years. Pollution is escalating at the same pace as production and consumption, thus affecting the possibility of a viable environment.25
Assuming that human society continues to grow exponentially in the 21st century, the change in eight parameters was calculated up to 2100. These eight parameters include population, industrial production per capita, food production per capita, level of pollution compared to 1970, number of births per 1000 inhabitants, number of deaths per 1000 inhabitants, number of services per inhabitant per year. This analysis demonstrated that the depletion of resources and the increase in pollution will replace the current development by regression. All eight parameters under consideration will reach their maximum value, some earlier, some later in the first half of the 21st century, and then begin to decline. The authors called this scenario the standard model of development.26
Forecasting the development of technology and analysing development scenarios based on future technologies, it became evident that technological development can postpone, but not avoid, critical moments of development. The study illustrates that the stable continuation of humanity is realisable, however, humanity must drastically change its current way of life.27
In 2004, the same authors published the book ‘Limits to Growth – 30 Years Later’, which inferred that for thirty years human development has largely followed the standard scenario.28 Ahead of the 40th anniversary of the study report, one of its authors published the report ‘2052. A Global Development Forecast for the Next Forty Years’. The report presents important indicators of the functioning of society during the forty years since the publication of ’The Limits to Growth’ and forecasts the behaviour of humanity over the next forty years. This book addresses, among other things, anthropogenic climate change and corresponding challenges. It has been pointed out that in the second half of the last century, humanity exceeded the limits of sustainable environmental use, and today the ecological footprint reaches approx. 1.4-1.5. This means that humanity exceeds the use of Earth’s renewable resources by up to 1.5 times.29
Over the years, besides these three reports have been published a number of studies and analyses which shows that economic growth as it has been treated for centuries is unsustainable. The ecological sustainability crisis and its consequences – the climate crisis, biodiversity loss, and diminishing natural resources – cannot be resolved without addressing the linear economic model and overconsumption. The linear economic model (see figure 2) means that more and more natural resources are continually included in the economy. When natural resources have been used for some time, they are removed from the economy as waste and pollution.
Figure 2. Linear economic model.
A linear economic model cannot guarantee the well-being of humankind and the environment and does not meet the long-term needs of modern society. The earth’s natural resources are limited, which makes it important for the environment and economic development to find a sustainable way to use them.30
Globally, the use of natural resources has more than tripled in 50 years, and the OECD estimates that it will almost double from the current level by 2060 unless we change our production and consumption habits.31
In the context of the transformation of the linear economy, the most common ideas are decoupling economic growth from natural resources, and the circular economy. The term ‘decoupling’ refers to breaking the link between “use of natural resources” and “economic growth.” Decoupling occurs when the growth rate of an environmental pressure is less than that of its economic driving force (e.g. GDP) over a given period. Decoupling can be either absolute or relative. Absolute decoupling is said to occur when the environmentally relevant variable is stable or decreasing while the economic driving force is growing and relative when the growth rate of the environmentally relevant variable is positive, but less than the growth rate of the economic variable.32
Direct practical action for decoupling is to implement the circulation of materials (see figure 3). The transition to a more resource-efficient circular economy offers a suitable solution, which in turn requires systemic changes in policy decisions as well as in the attitudes and behaviour of businesses, consumers and society. The aim of the circular economy is to decouple economic growth from the use of primary raw materials by creating a circular production and consumption system with the least possible losses. Resources need to be managed efficiently throughout their life cycle, from production and consumption to waste management and recovery, creating more value from existing resources while generating less waste. In addition to reducing the environmental impact, by effectively applying the principle of the circular economy, companies can reduce costs, increase their growth potential and promote their reputation. That is why it is important for the competitiveness and sustainable growth of a highly resource-efficient circular economy, focusing on existing materials and products: re-use, improvement, and recycling.33
Figure 3. Circular economy34
The transition to a circular economy requires changes throughout the product value chain, from product design to new business models and consumption patterns. For new and existing products, the main focus is on life-cycle design, focusing on sustainable material selection, quality (long product life, room for improvement), supply chain optimization and reuse and reuse (universality, component separation). In addition to smart designs, eco-innovation and technological development play an important role in supporting the reorientation of economic development. For the circular economy to reach its full potential, systemic thinking and changes in the whole socio-economic system are needed to bring about real change in consumption, production, planning, politics, lifestyles, culture and values.35
The circular economy is a cross-sectoral principle, which is why cooperation between companies and international agreements are important, creating significant opportunities for the creation of new markets and partnerships. Successful cooperation between companies is well characterised by industrial symbiosis, the aim of which is to achieve a closed production cycle, where the waste, residual heat or other by-products of one company are used by another company.36
Major changes are also needed in the way products and services are consumed. The daily choices of millions of consumers have a significant impact on the environment. Raising awareness and creating demand for sustainable products will contribute to the development of a green economy.
The role of the state in the transition to a circular economy is to pursue the goals of development at all levels and to create favourable conditions for the implementation of the principles of the circular economy and to remove obstacles.
